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Commentary & analysis with a focus on European economic policy

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Brexit, the personal and the political

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Last week I was asked to write, for a German audience, a piece on Brexit that was short and “personal but also political”. This is what I delivered. The German version will be out in mid-April in Magazin Mitbestimmung.

As I write these words it is 1000 days since the 2016 referendum that is propelling the United Kingdom, after almost half a century of membership, out of the EU. It seems like an age. And it is just 10 days before the foreseen Brexit Day on March 29th. Yet confusion still reigns as to the outcome. Despite years of debate, all the options remain on the table: crashing out, leaving amicably with a deal and, after all, staying in. [Read more…]

Macron and Kramp-Karrenbauer: vive la difference!

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(Update 19.03: corrected misspelling of Kramp-Karrenbauer)

Earlier this month something unprecedented, as far as I recall, happened in European politics. The head of state and government of a member state of the EU, France’s Emmanuel Macron, directly addressed the citizens of all the EU countries, simultaneously, in no less than 22 European languages. In doing so he bypassed the usual intergovernmental channels completely and the filtering systems of 28 nationally organised media at least partially.

While the unusual form of the address ruffled some feathers, it drew a high-level response. The general-secretary of the CDU, and likely Germany’s next Chancellor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), issued a response, made available in five languages. Beyond the significance of the fact that Germany’s response came not from Angela Merkel, but the likely next head of government, this exchange constitute shoots of a tree whose stunted growth has long been considered a critical weakness of the EU: a European public space (Öffentlichkeit).

But what of the content? Here the differences are marked, but in the context of the upcoming European elections that may not be a bad thing. [Read more…]

The UK after the draft agreement with the EU27

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The situation is in flux, but here is a short analysis of the situation in the UK (as of 1700 CET, 14.11.18), written primarily for a non-British audience.

The British government and the European Commission have – finally – reached an agreement, at technical level, on how Brexit is to be managed. Details of the almost 500 page document have yet to be released. But the cornerstone is a decision to keep the whole UK within the customs union for the foreseeable future, with partial acceptance of the single market rules for the province of Northern Ireland.

We are far from being out of the Brexit woods, however.

Theresa May will gain the support of her cabinet, despite likely ministerial resignations. The EU27 will almost certainly support the draft.

The next hurdle is daunting, though: May needs a majority in the House of Commons. [Read more…]