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Juncker talks the talk: who will walk the walk?

September 14, 2017 by andrew36 Leave a Comment

Jean-Claude Juncker’s 2017 State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech was marked, particularly compared with last year’s offering, by a renewed sense of optimism, but also by the urgency of serious institutional reform.

The Commission President covered a wide range of issues and challenges. The overall thrust of his message is that the EU now has the wind in its sails and must seize the opportunity to push ahead, taking further steps to underpin the integration process. That the wind has changed tack is evidenced by the defeat, for now at least, of the populist surge, the slo-mo train-wreck that is Brexit – which has revealed much anti-European rhetoric as simple untruths, and brought home the advantages of close economic integration – and not least the steadily improving economic situation, which has now broadened to many countries badly mauled by the crisis. Unemployment, as Juncker noted, is at a 9-year low.

Perhaps aware of the criticism that the EU is seen as too technocratic and fails to inspire emotions, the Commission President did emotion with a capital E, intertwining personal reminiscences with appeals to values including equality, freedom, the rule of law and transparency.

But it was not just mood music. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Brexit, EU Commission, euro, Jean-Claude Juncker, SOTEU, State of the European Union

UK PMI suggests short-run uncertainty effects severe

July 22, 2016 by andrew36 Leave a Comment

The PMI (purchasing manager index) is not an economic outcome, but a forward-looking indicator of economic sentiment. Still, today’s figures* from the UK and the Euro Area are the first indication that predictions that the June 23 Brexit outcome will have serious short-run costs for Britain, but not so much for the Euro Area, are likely to be borne out.

PMI UK 0716

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Commentary Tagged With: Brexit, Euro Area, GDP, Markit, PMI, recession, UK

No good options for the UK – risks but opportunities for the EU

June 28, 2016 by andrew36 1 Comment

I recall many years ago discussing an industrial conflict with someone who is now a senior trade union leader.  Sure I can get our people “up a palm tree”, he said. But then I have to know how to get them back down again afterwards. This common sense advice was not taken by the Brexiteers. They and their media friends whipped up British citizens into an apoplexy over the EU and immigration, suggesting that if they vote Leave all the things they dislike about the EU (and maybe about modern life more generally) will disappear, while all they like can be retained. And they won a small but clear majority in the referendum.

It is exhilarating to win: to sit up in the palm tree, survey the turmoil below and feel a sense of empowerment. After a while though, a palm tree is in uncomfortable place. It’s easy to poke holes in the status quo. It’s easy to promise people the moon (assuming one has the requisite pragmatic attitude to telling the truth). But now the Leave camp must lead both its supporters and the British people as a whole down from the palm tree. The problem is there is no ladder. More fundamentally there is no clarity whether to go North, South, East or West of the tree.

So far all the Bexiteers have managed to do is to own up that many promises will remain unfilled. But that will have to change soon. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Article 50, Boris Johnson, Brexit, EEA, EU, Leave, Remain, UK, UK referendum

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Recommended links

  1. Mainly macro (Simon Wren-Lewis)
  2. Paul Krugman
  3. econoblog101 (Dirk Ehnts)