It’s EU referendum day in the UK. Before the results become known, it is a good time to reflect on the campaign and think about the consequences – legal, political and economic – of different possible outcomes, both for the UK and the EU.

Referendum number two

More than forty years after holding a referendum that overwhelmingly confirmed the its membership of the then European Community (“Common Market”), today the UK is holding another plebiscite, on whether to reverse that decision and leave the European Union, as it has now become. The referendum was an election promise by Conservative PM David Cameron to suppress the vote of the anti-EU UKIP party and keep his Eurosceptic backbenchers on side. The political constellation is roughly the same as forty years ago: the centre right and left – the Establishment if you so will – against the right and left fringes. However, one thing is certain: today’s outcome will be much closer than the 2:1 majority for In in 1975. [Read more…]