€-Vision

Commentary & analysis with a focus on European economic policy

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German elections: a Caribbean hurricane for Europe?

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The Caribbean has been in the news lately for a succession of damaging hurricanes. Yesterday’s German elections seem almost certain to lead to a so-called Jamaica coalition between Mrs. Merkel’s conservatives (CDU/CSU), the liberal FDP and the Greens. (The party colours, black, yellow, green, are those of the island’s national flag). Is Europe in for stormy times? It certainly looks like it.

The debate on reforming the EU and especially the Euro Area is at a critical phase. There has been a flurry of proposals and reflection papers from the EU Commission and think-tanks. Jean-Claude Juncker’s recent State of the EU speech held out the prospect of a push towards deepening EMU. The new French President, Emmanuel Macron, has embarked on domestic reforms, part of the rationale of which is to open up space for Euro Area governance reforms. A speech on this issue is scheduled for this week. Everyone has been waiting for the German elections.

And now this. [Read more…]

After the ordeal. Thoughts on EU Referendum day about Europe’s future

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It’s EU referendum day in the UK. Before the results become known, it is a good time to reflect on the campaign and think about the consequences – legal, political and economic – of different possible outcomes, both for the UK and the EU.

Referendum number two

More than forty years after holding a referendum that overwhelmingly confirmed the its membership of the then European Community (“Common Market”), today the UK is holding another plebiscite, on whether to reverse that decision and leave the European Union, as it has now become. The referendum was an election promise by Conservative PM David Cameron to suppress the vote of the anti-EU UKIP party and keep his Eurosceptic backbenchers on side. The political constellation is roughly the same as forty years ago: the centre right and left – the Establishment if you so will – against the right and left fringes. However, one thing is certain: today’s outcome will be much closer than the 2:1 majority for In in 1975. [Read more…]