The situation is in flux, but here is a short analysis of the situation in the UK (as of 1700 CET, 14.11.18), written primarily for a non-British audience.

The British government and the European Commission have – finally – reached an agreement, at technical level, on how Brexit is to be managed. Details of the almost 500 page document have yet to be released. But the cornerstone is a decision to keep the whole UK within the customs union for the foreseeable future, with partial acceptance of the single market rules for the province of Northern Ireland.

We are far from being out of the Brexit woods, however.

Theresa May will gain the support of her cabinet, despite likely ministerial resignations. The EU27 will almost certainly support the draft.

The next hurdle is daunting, though: May needs a majority in the House of Commons. [Read more…]